After the madness of Manic Monday, only 17 players remain — Novak Djokovic‘s fourth-round clash against Adrian Mannarino is postponed until Tuesday — across both the men’s and women’s draws at Wimbledon.
Here are our Power Rankings based on who we think has the best chance to win the title, men and women combined, taking into consideration form, draw and history:
1: Roger Federer (No. 3 seed)
Although Federer yielded the narrative to Rafael Nadal for the clay-court season, he has reclaimed it with his triumphant return on grass, reaching his 50th Grand Slam quarterfinal without losing a set. He’s toting a 27-2 record for the year and a retooled attacking game that makes him the man to beat — as well as the overwhelming sentimental favorite — on Wimbledon grass.
2: Garbine Muguruza (No. 14 seed)
Sure she has had a rough year (23-17, no titles), but the 23-year-old is a massive sleeper in this draw. She caved to the pressure that came with winning the French Open last year, but the fire in her eyes and fighting spirit at this tournament have been striking. Her fitness also is noticeably better. In an awesome display of power and aggression, Muguruza produced 54 winners in her win over No. 1 Angelique Kerber. Having played a final before, she’s primed.
3: Andy Murray (No. 1 seed)
Murray has had a kind draw (his quarterfinal opponent will be Sam Querrey) and he has struggled to look sharp all year. But this is Wimbledon, Centre Court is his house, and he’s simply a different man there. Note of caution: His opponents are consistently hitting more winners (as well as more unforced errors). Murray will be inspired by the British crowd, but he can’t retain this title with his defensive skills alone.
4: Simona Halep (No. 2 seed)
Halep has a great shot at emerging from this tournament with the No. 1 ranking. She was the runner-up at the French Open and has been one of the most consistent players in an era of wild fluctuation. Something always seems to go wrong for Halep in the late stages, but she has been working hard to overcome her pessimistic streak.
The only American player who’s consistently played above his ranking at Wimbledon, Querrey has survived virtual rock fights with fellow serving supremos Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Kevin Anderson in previous rounds. You have to wonder how much that has taken out of the 6-foot-6, 29-year-old who’s never been known for his fitness or quickness. At this stage, mobility becomes a must-have asset.
16: Magdalena Rybarikova (unseeded)
All credit to the 28-year-old Slovakian who was ranked as low as 453 early this year, partly because of injuries. She’s had a great tournament, highlighted by a win over No. 3 seed Karolina Pliskova, but she doesn’t have the weapons to survive the second week. After all, she lost in the first round at Wimbledon in eight of her previous nine appearances.
17: Adrian Mannarino (unseeded)
While Mannarino should not be taken lightly — the Frenchman knocked out two seeds at the same Grand Slam for the first time in his career with victories over Feliciano Lopez and Gael Monfils earlier in the competition — his opponent, the seven-time winner Djokovic, looks in too good form to wilt. The extra day’s rest may help 29-year-old Mannarino’s recovery from a five-setter with Monfils, but the challenge of Djokovic should be too strong to overcome. Plus, even if Mannarino won, he’d have to play the next day, while everyone else in the field would have about 48 hours rest.